Collecting and Tracking Election Facts for Northumberland County and Beyond
Who’s running for what position:
U.S. Senate: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Warner is the Democratic nominee as he seeks a fourth term in the November midterms after he was the only Democratic candidate to qualify for the primary by the April 2 filing deadline. Republicans will nominate his challenger in an August primary. The Republican primary candidates are Kim Farington, Bert Mizusawa, and David Williams. At the risk of redundancy, Virginia republicans must do their research. Whichever of the three wins the primary will face an uphill battle.
U.S. House (1st District): Republican incumbent Rob Wittman will face the winner of a Democratic primary. The Democratic candidates are Salaam Bhatti, Elizabeth Dempsey Biggs, Tim Cywinski, Jason Knapp, Erika Kopp, Shannon Taylor, and Melvin “Mel” Tull. It’s important to know who these people are when engaging in conversation and writing letters.
A great place to begin your research is Cardinal News. They’ve done some good work summarizing the playing field.
The Virginia Constitutional Issues
Legalized Abortion
HJ1 – The new addition to Virginia’s Constitution makes abortion legal, adding some odd, possibly insidious opportunities for immoral actions by the state.
House Joint Resolution 1 (HJ1) is the Virginia legislative vehicle for a 2026 constitutional amendment to establish a fundamental right to reproductive freedom. The resolution passed both chambers of the General Assembly in January 2026, with the House voting 64-34 and the Senate voting 21-18 on their final approvals.
If approved by Virginia voters in a November 2026 statewide referendum, the amendment would:
Codify reproductive rights into the state constitution, protecting decisions regarding prenatal care, childbirth, contraception, abortion, and fertility care.
Prohibit bans on abortion, allowing regulation only if justified by a “compelling state interest” achieved by the “least restrictive means.”
Allow third-trimester regulation except when necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant individual or if the fetus is not viable.
This legislative action follows the requirement for a constitutional amendment to receive majority approval in both chambers twice, with the second passage occurring after an intervening election.
Restoration of Voting Rights for Convicted Felons upon release
HJ2 is a Virginia constitutional amendment that mandates the automatic restoration of voting rights for individuals convicted of a felony upon their release from incarceration, eliminating the previous requirement for gubernatorial restoration.
The Virginia General Assembly passed the amendment in January 2026 (House: 65–33; Senate: 21–18) and signed it into law on April 13, 2026. It is scheduled to be placed on the November 3, 2026, ballot for a statewide referendum. If approved by voters, it will amend Section 1 of Article II of the Virginia Constitution to ensure that civil rights are restored automatically, a change supporters argue will reduce recidivism and address racial disparities in disenfranchisement.
Expect a large number of Pardons after this one. Find the full verbiage with changes highlighted below.
Same Sex Marriage. Yet another front on the battlefield of morality
HJ3 represents a larger scare in the socio-moral battleground. The following paragraph illustrates a common position taken by sources on both sides of the argument.
HJ3 – The Marriage Equality Amendment is a constitutional amendment that repeals a provision in the Virginia Constitution that previously barred same-sex unions. This provision had been nullified by the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges ruling, but HJ3 requires Virginia and its localities to treat all marriages between two adult persons equally under the law. The Virginia General Assembly gave final approval to this amendment in January 2026, and it will be placed on the ballot for a statewide referendum during the 2026 midterm elections. The full text of the amendment can be read below with changes highlighted.
Opposing Candidates
Virginia’s First Congressional District
Here in Virginia, the Democrats seek to unseat Congressman Wittman. As of this writing, Shannon Taylor is the presumptive winner of the Democratic Congressional Primary for District 1.
Visiting her campaign website, one could easily conclude that Shannon walks on water, with several high-profile endorsements. But are the claims true? For this post, an examination of one claim is sufficient. There will be plenty to dive into over the next few. We’ll address just one point here.
The claim?
From her campaign website:
“As Henrico County’s top prosecutor, I have dedicated the past 14 years to keeping my community safe. I am proud of my office’s 90% homicide conviction rate and that murder rates have dropped by over 80% in our county in the past year. We have taken murderers, violent criminals, and fraudsters off our streets, bringing justice to thousands of Henrico families.“
From her most recent flyer:
“Democrat Shannon Taylor
The first Democrat in decades to be elected as Henrico County’s top prosecutor, Shannon Tayler helped make Henrico one of Virginia’s safest communities, dropping the murder rate by 80%.”
The implication in both cases is that Henrico County is safer because of her. But, is it?
Let’s dive in.
Her service began with her election in 2011 and has run to 2026, so far. She lost her bid for the Virginia Attorney General’s office to the radically incompetent Jay Jones, subsequently announcing her bid to cross the threshold into lifelong career politics in September, 2025, announcing her intended run for the district one house seat.
Her mailer and website both make claims of a decreased murder rate in Henrico County.
Henrico County, Virginia, has seen significant fluctuations in its homicide (murder) rate since 2011, with a dramatic drop in 2025 marking the lowest number of killings in 60 years. While specific annual data for every year from 2011 to 2019 is not fully detailed in the most recent public reports, the official police statistics provide a clear picture of the trend from 2020 through 2025, alongside context for the earlier years.
The Henrico County Police Division maintains detailed annual records. The data reveals a volatile period followed by a historic low in 2025:
In a report by the Henrico Citizen, Henrico Police Chief Eric English attributed the decline to Law enforcement policies and practices resulting in a significant number of seized weapons, never mentioning Shannon’s name once.
The best indications for the total number of murders before 2020 can be found using internet search tools.
Reported murders in Henrico County, Virginia, from 2011 to 2019 are as follows:
Henrico murders 2011 – 2019
In review, it looks more like higher murder counts are the norm, while lower counts are the exception. In fact, 2026 is looking like a record breaker.
2026 Homicide Overview in Henrico County
Following a historic low in 2025, Henrico County has experienced a significant increase in homicides during the first half of 2026. While specific year-to-date totals are still accumulating, police records indicate multiple homicide incidents occurring monthly since January, contrasting sharply with the three total murders reported the previous year.
Early 2026 Incidents (January – March)
The year began with a homicide on January 8, 2026, in the 1400 block of Oakland Road. This was followed by another incident on January 20 in the 500 block of Charles City Road. By late January, a third homicide was recorded in the 200 block of Engleside Drive, which was an update to a case from January 2024.
In February, violence continued with a homicide reported on February 16 on Maple Run Lane. March saw further incidents, including a death investigation on March 6 at 5600 Old Osborne Turnpike and a confirmed homicide on March 20 on Roswell Road.
Spring and Early Summer Surge (April – June)
The frequency of homicides appeared to increase as the year progressed. While April included a search for a person of interest in a homicide, May recorded a cluster of violence. On May 23, 2026, a homicide occurred in the 9900 block of Independence Park Drive. Later that same week, on May 28, two separate homicides were reported: one on N. Fern Avenue and another in the 7500 block of Brook Road. The month ended with another homicide on May 31 at Balmoral Avenue and Fernwood Street.
June brought additional updates to previous cases, including the Maple Run Lane homicide from February, but also new incidents as police continued investigations into the year’s rising violent crime numbers.
Context: Comparison to 2025 Records
The rise of homicides in 2026 stands in stark contrast to the previous year’s achievements. In 2025, Henrico County reported only three murders, an 86% drop from the 22 recorded in 2024. Police Chief Eric English had attributed that success to strategic enforcement and community partnerships. The 2026 figures represent a departure from that historic low, with the number of homicides in the first six months of 2026 already exceeding the total count for all of 2025.
Claiming or even hinting at solo victory, much less the implication that people won’t look at facts before voting, is hubris. Failing to make clear that the once-in-60-year occurrence is just that and is not sustainable is deception by omission. How will she explain Henrico’s ongoing rise in violent crime while taking credit for a one-year anomaly?